BIZweek n°382 18 fév 2022
BIZweek n°382 18 fév 2022
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  • Parution : n°382 de 18 fév 2022

  • Périodicité : hebdomadaire

  • Editeur : Capital Publications Ltd

  • Format : (260 x 370) mm

  • Nombre de pages : 10

  • Taille du fichier PDF : 2,3 Mo

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VENDREDI 18 FÉVRIER 2022 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 382 Q BIZ ALERT GLOBAL RISK SURVEY The pandemic enters a new phase The rapid spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant has prompted a significant reassessment of the global economic outlook by business, according to the latest survey of risk perceptions by Oxford Economics. Businesses perceive tail risks to be diminishing, while economies learning to live with endemic Covid is now seen as the topupside risk to global growth. Overall, however, businesses still believerisks are skewed to the downside. The potential impact of higher inflation on monetary policy and financial markets is now a more prominent concern. The survey was completed by 168 businesses from January 13 to February 1 The latest Global Risk Survey gives a mixed picture. The threat of inflation triggering market turmoil has become the top near-termdownside risk, while concerns that central bank will tighten prematurely have also risen. But perceptions of the nature ofupside risks have also shifted, and business uncertainty over the economic outlook has declined markedly. The Oxford Economics Global Risk Surveys canvas the views of Oxford Economics’clients, including some of the world’s largest companies and other businesses. Based on the analysis of the Q1 2020 survey, the participating companies collectively employ around 6 million people and have a turnover of around $2 trillion. Few businesses report a significant change in confidence Overall, more businesses have becoming more negative (44%) about global prospects over the past month than more positive (32%), although a larger proportion of respondents’report becoming more positive makes searching simple on the month than in December’s flash survey. Very few respondents report a significant change in sentiment over the past month, however. Downside risks are perceived to lie to the downside More than a half of respondents (55%) view risks to the baseline forecast for global growth aseither slightly to the downslide (49%, down from 50% in December’s flash survey) or heavily to the downside (5%,up from 3%). More than a third of businesses (37%) see risks as balanced. Businesses expect continued above-trend growth What do you see as the top downside global economic risks over the next two years ? Central banks tighten policy prematurely Supply-chain disruption persists Further coronavirus yeaves Higher inflation triggers market turrnoii Source Oxford EConancs Latest Global Risk Survey 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%% of respondents ening as top risk The pace of global expansion during 2021 exceeded business expectations. Further above-trend growth is anticipated in the near term, implying a higher level of activity than foreseen in previous surveys. Businesses’mean expectation for world growth in 2022 remains at 3.6% this month, compared to the 4.0% baseline forecast, while a rise of 3.2% is expected for 2023. The probability attached to very weak or very strong growth has also fallen significantly. Businesses only see around a 1-in-50 chance of the world economy contracting this year and a similar chance of growth exceeding 6%. In the previous survey, these outcomes were seen as three times as likely. Businesses perceive much greater near-terminflation pressure Price pressures are perceived to have risen again in the latest survey. Businesses’mean expectation for world inflation in 2022 has risen to 4.5% in 2022 – below the latest baseline forecast of 5.2%, butup 0.7ppts on the quarter. Medium-terminflation concerns stillappear more contained, with fewer respondents highlighting stagflation as a very significant risk than for several other key risks. A key hope is that economies learnto live with endemic Covid Amid speculation over some parts of the world entering a ‘pandemic endgame’,upside hopes are now perceived to rest mainly on economies learning to live with endemic Covid, cited by 43% of businesses in the latest survey. This could have implications for consumers’willingness to run down savings accumulated during the pandemic, which continues to be seen as a major potentialupside. Official online directory of Mauritius Telecom Business People 3

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