BIZweek n°386 18 mar 2022
BIZweek n°386 18 mar 2022
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  • Parution : n°386 de 18 mar 2022

  • Périodicité : hebdomadaire

  • Editeur : Capital Publications Ltd

  • Format : (260 x 370) mm

  • Nombre de pages : 8

  • Taille du fichier PDF : 2,0 Mo

  • Dans ce numéro : rapport sur le secteur bancaire, la MCB en première position.

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VENDREDI 18 MARS 2022 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 386 ACTA PUBLICA A POST-DOLLAR WORLD ? Saudi Arabia Reportedly Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollar Saudi Arabia is reportedly in talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in Chinese currency yuan instead of the U.S. dollar. This could dent dollar’s dominance in the global market, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter makes searching simple The two nations have intermittently discussed the matter for six years, but talks have reportedly steppedup in 2022, with Riyadh disgruntled over the United States’nuclear negotiations with Iran and its lack of backing for Saudi Arabia’s military operation in neighboring Yemen. Nearly 80 percent of global oil sales are priced in dollars, and since the mid-1970s the Saudis have exclusively used the dollar for oil trading as part of a security agreement with the U.S. government, according to the Journal. The talks are the latest in an ongoing effort by Beijing both to make its currency tradeable in international oil markets and strengthen its relationship with the Saudis specifically. China previously aided Riyadh in construction of ballistic missiles and consultation on nuclear power. Conversely, the Saudi-U.S. relationship has been increasingly frayed in recent years. Crown Prince Mohammedbin Salman initially put forth a public image as a reformer, liberalizing the country’s policies on women’s rights and criminal justice. However, the 2018 assassination of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi has been catastrophic for both the crown prince’s public relations offensive and relations with Washington. The rift intensified after President Biden, who has said the assassination should make the kingdom a «pariah,» took office. A domino effect expected During the same period, China’s economic relationship to Saudi Arabia has grown closer, with the kingdom providing 1.76 million barrels of oil a day to the country in 2021, according to the Journal, citing China’s General Administration of Customs. While the country plans to maintain the dollar for the majority of its oil trading, a shift by the Saudis could create a domino effect for China’s other major oil suppliers, such as Russia, Angola and Iraq. China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports. If priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency. The Saudis are also considering including yuan-denominated futures contracts, known as the petroyuan, in the pricing model of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Aramco. Saudi Arabia previously threatened to sell in other currencies in 2019 if Congress passed a bill that would allow antitrust liability for OPEC members. The bill, which has been introduced numerous times over the years, failed again that year. The report Tuesday also comes as the U.S. has appealed to the Saudis to pump more oil to offset soaring gas prices compounded by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the U.S. cutting off Russian oil imports in response. Official online directory of Mauritius Telecom Business People./§ 4
VENDREDI 18 MARS 2022 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 386 AUTHORS Alfred Kammer, Jihad Azour, Abebe Aemro Selassie, IIan Goldfajn and Changyong Rhee – International Monetary Fund (IMF) 15 March 2022 POST SCRIPTUM ANALYSIS How War in Ukraine Is Reverberating Across World’s Regions Beyond the suffering and humanitarian crisis from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the entire global economy will feel the effects of slower growth and faster inflation Impacts will flow through three main channels. One, higher prices for commodities like food and energy will pushup inflation further, in turn eroding the value of incomes and weighing on demand. Two, neighboring economies in particular will grapple with disrupted trade, supply chains, and remittances as wellas an historic surge in refugee flows. And three, reduced business confidence and higher investor uncertainty will weigh on asset prices, tightening financial conditions and potentially spurring capital outflows from emerging markets. Russia and Ukraine are major commodities producers, and disruptions have caused global prices to soar, especially for oil and natural gas. Food costs have jumped, with wheat, for which Ukraine and Russia makeup 30 percent of global exports, reaching a record. Beyond global spillovers, countries with direct trade, tourism, and financial exposures will feel additional pressures. Economies reliant on oil imports will see wider fiscal and trade deficits and more inflation pressure, though some exporters such as those in the Middle East and Africa may benefit from higher prices. Steeper price increases for food and fuel may spur a greater risk of unrest in some regions, from Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America to the Caucasus and Central Asia, while food insecurity is likely to further increase in parts of Africa and the Middle East. Gauging these reverberations is hard, but we already see our growth forecasts as likely to be revised down next month when we will offer a fuller picture in our World Economic Outlook and regional assessments. Longer term, the war may fundamentally alter the global economic and geopolitical order should energy trade shift, supply chains reconfigure, payment networks fragment, and countries rethink reserve currency holdings. Increased geopolitical tension further raises risks of economic fragmentation, especially for trade and technology. Europe The toll is already immense in Ukraine. Unprecedented sanctions on Russia will impair financial intermediation and trade, inevitably causing a deep recession there. The ruble’s depreciation is fueling inflation, further diminishing living standards for the population. Energy is the main spillover channel for Europe as Russia is a critical source of natural gas imports. Wider supply-chain disruptions may also be consequential. These effects will fuel inflation and slow the recovery from the pandemic. Eastern Europe will see rising financing costs and a refugee surge. It has absorbed most of the 3 million people who recently fled Ukraine, United Nations data show. European governments also may confront fiscal pressures from additional spending on energy security and defense budgets. While foreign exposures to plunging Russian assets are modest by global standards, pressures on emerging markets may grow should investors seek safer havens. Similarly, most European banks have modest and manageable direct exposures to Russia. Caucasus and Central Asia Beyond Europe, these neighboring nations 5 Cont’d on page 6

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