VENDREDI 11 MARS 2022 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 385 LA TOUR WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE 2021/22 Grain Trade in Flux Amid Russia-Ukraine Conflict The conflict in the Black Sea has disrupted the flow of grains from the region and caused great uncertainty in global grain trade. Ukraine has suspended port operations for commercial activities since February 24. Russian grain movement through the Black Sea is also affected by exceptionally high insurance premiums for vessels. In addition, the sanctions that have been applied make commercial transactions challenging. In response, grain prices have soared for all major exporters. This month’s forecast represents an initial assessment of the short-termimpacts as a result of this action. Wheat, corn, and barley are the major grains supplied by Ukraine and Russia Ukraine accounts for 10 percent and Russia for 16 percent of global wheat exports in marketing year 2021/22, which began in July. The majority of Ukraine’s exports are shipped in the first few months of the marketing year, but the closure of ports is currently limiting additional exports. WHEAT : Global productionup because of Australia, and prices hiked as well Russia had already been taxing exports and implemented an export quota on February 15. Russia exempts neighboring Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries from the export quota and maintains access to ship out of the Caspian Sea. In addition to strong exports from the European Union, India and Australia are expected to rampup exports to record levels since both have record crops and competitive prices. Meanwhile, global trade is adjusted slightly lower this month as sharply higher wheat prices are trimming demand with importers reducing and deferring purchases and relying on existing stocks. Global production isup this month primarily on a larger crop forecast for Australia. Global consumption is lowered this month with reduced FSI consumption more than offsetting higher feed and residual use in Ukraine and Australia. Global trade is forecast down this month with reduced exports from Ukraine and Russia due to the ongoing conflict. Imports for the Middle East and Africa are also forecast down due to higher wheat prices and reduced supplies from the Black Sea. Ending stocks are raised this month as reduced exports from Russia and Ukraine are expected to result in larger carry-out. The U.S. season-average farmprice isup 20 cents to $7.50 per bushel. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, global wheat prices for all major exporters have made unprecedented moves higher in both cash and futures markets as importers search for new wheat supplies. Canadian quotes shotup $60/ton from the previous month, also reflecting tightening stocks from last year’s drought. Australian quotes rose the least,up $47/ton as ample supplies from the new crop prevented substantial price gains. Argentine quotes rose $116/ton, supported by strong purchases from Brazil and sever- 3 Cont’d on page 4