BIZweek n°377 14 jan 2022
BIZweek n°377 14 jan 2022
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  • Parution : n°377 de 14 jan 2022

  • Périodicité : hebdomadaire

  • Editeur : Capital Publications Ltd

  • Format : (260 x 370) mm

  • Nombre de pages : 10

  • Taille du fichier PDF : 1,6 Mo

  • Dans ce numéro : rapport sur l'économie Africaine 2022.

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VENDREDI 14 JANVIER 2022 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 377 Sub-Sa ha ran Africa Wheat Flour Sub-Saharan African Wheat Flour Supplier Market Share (MY 2020/21) Imports from Turkey, Egypt, and EU Turkey 2016/17 Sud an Angola Egypt Somalia EU According to the United States Department of AUnited States export quotes for all four classes of wheat have fallen in response to larger Southern Hemisphere harvests in Australia and Argentina, but also reflecting muted foreign demand as U.S. prices are stilluncompetitive despite the recent decline. Global wheat prices were lower over the past month as the harvest progressed for record crops in Argentina and Australia. Canadian quotes had the largest decline, falling $36/ton from the previous month, following a larger production estimate from Statistics Canada. EU quotes were down $17/ton as demand from major buyer Algeria remained below expectations. Australian quotes dropped $13/ton as harvest conditions improved. Argentine quotes fell $16/ton as a record harvest continued and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its production forecast. U.S. quotes were also down $10/ton with weak international demand exhibited by recent weekly Export Sales Report. Russian quotes, meanwhile, were down $6/ton despite robust global import demand as the proposed wheat export quota dampened prices. Rice : Price hikes U.S. prices increased $5 to $605/ton amid tight domestic stocks. Uruguayan prices remained at $545. Thai quotes continued to rise slightly by $2 to $397/ton, reflecting a strengthening Thai baht. Vietnamese prices slid $10 to $400/ton following muted demand from the Philippines due to a pause in issuing new phyto-sanitary import permits. Pakistani prices were little changed at $365/ton, and Indian prices remained unchanged at $355/ton amid substantial supplies and steady demand. 2020/21. Intra Sub- Sahara n Africa 0.0 1.0 2.0 Benin E rit rea Ethiopia Rest of World M MT Wheat Grain Equivalent Rest of Sub- Saharan Africa BIZ ALERT WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE Global production will be down for rice, unlike wheat Global production of wheat isup this month primarily on a larger forecast for Argentina. Global consumption is lowered this month, primarily on reduced feed and residual use. Ending stocks are revised slightly higher this month but are still down more than 3 percent from the prior year. Global trade is forecast lower with reduced imports for the United States, Pakistan, and South Africa this month, but remains at a record. Exports are trimmedfor Russia and the United States, partially offset by a higher forecast for Argentina. On the other hand, global rice production is forecast lower this month, mostly on smaller crops in Mali, Sri Lanka, and the United States. Anupward revision to consumption in Asia and South America is mostly offset by a decrease in Mali. Global stocks are forecast to decline, primarily on significant decreases in Sri Lanka and India. Global trade isup overall, with stronger exports from India and greater imports for Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, and Sri Lanka Investment in Milling Capacity Reduces Sub-Saharan Africa Wheat Flour Imports Sub-Saharan Africa has undergone a transformation in its wheat flour import market over the past 5 years. In 2016/17, Angola and Sudan were the two largest importers of wheat flour, importing primarily from the three largest suppliers to the region : Turkey, Egypt, and the EU. These three countries are responsible for 80 percent of global exports to Sub-Saharan Africa. Currently, Angola and Sudan play a much smaller role while other countries like Ethiopia, Somalia, and Benin have emerged as new key importers instead. Overall, the region’s wheat flour imports have contracted by around 40 percent over the past 5 years, while wheat grain imports have expanded as African countries make investments in domestic milling. In 2017, following a steep decline in oil prices, the Angolan government pushed for broader economic diversification, including the development of the country’s agro-processing industry. Specifically, it launched a concerted effort to become self-sufficient in wheat flour production. Wheat flour imports reached nearly 1.0 million tons in 2016/17, valued at approximately $190 million, which put added pressure on the nation’s foreign currency reserves. With the opening of operations of the Grandes Moagens de Angola, Kikolo and Leonor Carrinho flour mills, Angolan wheat flour milling capacity grew to 840,000 tons per year. After years of lobbying from domestic millers, the Angolan government issued new tariff rates in 2019, eliminating duty-free access for wheat flour and raising import duties to 20 percent, with a further increase to 50 percent in 2020. The government’s initiative has met its goal, as Angola has now become largely self-sufficient in wheat flour production. Imports in 2020/21 were 247,000 tons, down almost 750,000 tons from the 2016/17 peak. China Rice Imports Surge – Especially from India China is forecast to report its highest rice imports in several years at 4.75 million tons for 2021, primarily on increased demand for broken rice from India. With only 1 month of data remaining, China is unlikely to fill its tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for rice at 5.32 million tons, but neverthelessimports have grown substantially this year. Historically, most of the rice imported by China comes from Asian suppliers Vietnam, Burma, Pakistan, and Thailand. Aside from Burma, exports from these countries to China have all risen. Surprisingly, the surge in imports was in broken rice. In 2020, broken rice accounted for about one-third of total imports whereas in 2021, broken rice represents 52 percent of imports. Imports from Pakistan jumped from 300,000 tons to 800,000 tons in 2020 for January through November. During the same time, imports from Thailand jumped from 230,000 tons to 500,000 tons. More impressive is the volume of rice from India. In past years, China had not imported more than 50,000 tons of rice from India, as market access was restricted to basmati rice. However, after obtaining access for non-basmati rice, India has exported 1 million tons of broken rice to China in 2021. India’s competitive prices for broken rice relative to domestic prices in China and other competitors have encouraged imports by China. The broken rice is mainly used for animal feed as wellas in rice-based liquor manufacturing and in snack food production. Affordable broken rice can be imported outside of the TRQ, avoiding a bureaucratic process. India has become the largest rice exporter to China, while China has become the fourth-largest market for India. Mali Imports More Rice Amid Exceptionally Small Crop Mali milled rice production is forecast to drop 15 percent in 2021/22 to 1.7 million tons. The decline in production is due to shrinking area harvested as wellas reduced yields. Lower yields are caused by adverse weather events along with political instability which limits access to agricultural inputs in important growing regions. For the 2021/2022 market year (October-September) Mali is forecast to boost imports sharply by over 80 percent to 550,000 tons to supplement tight domestic supplies. Historically, Mali imported between 250,000-300,000 tons annually from several suppliers including India, Thailand, Brazil, and occasionally the United States. Mali also imports rice from neighboring countries including Cote d’Ivoire, and more recently, Senegal, which exported a significant amount of rice to Mali (over 60,000 tons in 2021) for the first time in recent years. Despite higher imports, reduced domestic supplies and higher prices are expected to support a continued decline in overall consumption. 3

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