VENDREDI 17 DÉCEMBRE 2021 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 373 ABEBE AEMRO SELASSIE, Director IMF’s African Department 14 December 2021 POST SCRIPTUM SPECIAL FEATURE The African Century Sub-Saharan Africa is a region that faces steep challengesa growing population, mounting debt, vulnerability to the effects of climate change, and governance issues. On top of it all is a long and arduous recovery from the pandemic. But many of those same challenges also represent tremendous opportunities. The right policies today could transformthe region’s economies into the largest and most dynamic in the world. To mark the 60th anniversary of the IMF’s African Department this year, a special feature has been produced : ‘Africa at a Crossroads : Learning from the Past and Looking to the Future’Fast-forward to 2081. The demographic boom currently unfolding in most sub-Saharan African countries will likely have transformedmany of the region’s economies into the largest and most dynamic in the world Wishful thinking ? Perhaps. But 30 to 40 years ago, not many would have thought that possible of China, India, Indonesia, or Turkey. Three factors will have an influential role in making this vision materialize : The demographic transition that is underway : By 2050, many sub-Saharan African countries will be among the few with a rising workingage population. Much investment and consumption demand will follow factors which are certain to entice considerable innovation. The ongoing digital revolution—which offers much scope for the diffusion of know-how, new business opportunities, and more efficient service delivery. How effectively the region’s economies deal with the transition to a low-carbon economy and the adverse consequences that climate change is set to unleash. This future is hard to envision now amid the unprecedented challenges of the pandemic. But it is one within reach given the region’s tremendous potential and is certainly the goal that needs to anchor policies. The very near-termchallenges are undeniable. Vaccination rates lag significantly behind those of high-income countries, averaging about 2½ percent of the population across sub-Saharan Africa by early October 2021. Most countries in the region have limited fiscal space to addressinvestment needs, and near-termgrowth prospects remain below prepandemic projections. Although the current focus is rightfully placed on addressing these near-termchallenges, our priorities should not lose sight of countries’long-termpotential. Transformative economic and structural reforms, coupled with significant external concessional financing, will be necessary to recover from the pandemic and maximize long-termpotential. Making the most of the demographic dividend The population of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to double from 1 billion to 2 billion by about 2050. This willaccount for half of global population growth, with the workingage population growing faster than any other age group. These projections—while not uniformacross the continent—should be placed in the context of the opposite trend in advanced economies, which typically see aging populations, an inverted population pyramid, and a reduction in population once immigration is excluded. This trend represents perhaps the region’s single greatest opportunity. It embodies a growing pool of human talent and ingenuity coupled with large market size—historically important drivers of economic dynamism. This, however, is not a given and will require astute policy choices to ensure that the potential is realized. Investment in human capital will be critical. While country circumstances differ across the region, this means mostly increased high-quality educational opportunities for a growing population, both at the primary and secondary levels, as wellas developing tertiary education to meet the demands of growth sectors. It also means expanding investment in health care, including broader access to a variety of vaccines (potentially through regional production hubs), ensuring widespread access to at least a minimum level of health services, and family planning. Accelerating health and education provision won’t be easy. Infrastructure needs to be built. Teachers, doctors, and other service providers need to be trained, and the trainers themselves must be trained. Given the speed of population change in many countries, the challenge will only increase if authorities delay. Multiyear plans will be vital, balancing the trade-off 6 Cont’d on page 7 |