BIZweek n°369 19 nov 2021
BIZweek n°369 19 nov 2021
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  • Parution : n°369 de 19 nov 2021

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  • Editeur : Capital Publications Ltd

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  • Dans ce numéro : le rapport du commerce international 2021.

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VENDREDI 19 NOVEMBRE 2021 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 369 LA TOUR WORLD TRADE REPORT 2021 More resilience requires more, not less, global economic cooperation This year’s World Trade Report reviews the role of trade, trade policy and international cooperation in building and supporting economic resilience in the face of natural and man-made disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds that today’s highly connected global economy is more exposed to risks and vulnerable to shocks, from supply chain cut-offs to infectious disease outbreaks, but that it is also more resilient to shocks when they do strike. The report finds that trade cooperation is instrumental in improving resilience to shocks, because it promotes greater diversification of products, suppliers and markets. It points to ways in which trade can sustain economic resilience for households, firms and governments, particularly when supported by complementary domestic policies and effective global cooperation When a shock hits, trade can help to mitigate the impact by allowing households and businesses continued access to goods and services. During the COV- ID-19 crisis, despite some pandemic-related export restrictions, trade helped countries meet the skyrocketing demand for medical products. In 2020, even as the value of global trade declined by 7.6 per cent, trade in medical supplies grew by 16 per cent. Trade in personal protective equipment increased by nearly 50 per cent – and by 480 per cent for the textile face masks that have become so familiar to all of us. Trade in agricultural products remained stable in 2020, preventing the health crisis from becoming a food crisis. The health and economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has been a massive stress test of the world trading system, delivering unprecedented shocks to global supply chains and trade relations among countries. In 2020, the value of global trade in goods and services in nominal dollar terms fell by 9.6 per cent, while global GDP fell by 3.3 per cent, in the most severe recession since World War II. However, the trading system has proved itself more resilient than many expected at the outset of the crisis. Although initially the pandemic severely disrupted international trade flows, supply chains have rapidly adapted, goods have continued to flow across borders, and many economies have gradually begun to recover. The 2021 World Trade Report looks at why the interconnected global trading system is both vulnerable and resilient to crises, how it can help countries to be more economically resilient to shocks, and what can be done to make the system better prepared and more resilient in the future. These are pressing questions in light of the prospect of increasingly frequent and more intense natural and man-made disasters. For example, climate change is driving increases in extreme weather events, such as droughts, cyclones and floods, which can have devastating effects. Human encroachment on animal habitats can increase the risks of spreading zoonotic diseases, which could potentially lead to another pandemic. Although safer production processes have reduced the frequency of technological and industrial disasters, incidences of cyber-attacks and data fraud are expected to continue to increase. Rising inequality, increasing economic fragility, and growing political uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are augmenting the risk of conflicts and violence. While there is a tendency to look at these risks individually, they can interact with each other and create cascading risks and shocks to the environment, economy and society. All of these risk trends can result in high numbers of deaths, injuries and illnesses, as wellas substantial economic losses. For example, earthquakes caused over 884,000 deaths between 1980 and 2020. There were over 4,800 floods around the world during the same period, which affected over 3.5 billion people. The total economic cost caused by natural disasters between 1980 and 2020 amounted to US$ 3.6 trillion (EM-DAT, 2020). The report conveys three main messages  : first, today’s hyper-connected global economy, characterized by deep trade links, has made the world more vulnerable to shocks, but also more resilient to them when they strike ; second, policies which aim to increase economic resilience by unwinding trade integration – for example, by re-shoring production and promoting self-sufficiency – can often have the opposite effect, effectively reducing economic resilience ; and third, strengthening economic resilience will require more global cooperation. Vulnerable but more resilient Trade can increase countries’vulnerabilities and exposure to hazards, as wellas facilitating the transmission of those hazards, through economic, financial, transport and digital linkages. At the same time, trade, as a key driver of productivity and economic growth, helps countries to generate the resources they need to prevent risks and 4 Cont’d on page 5
VENDREDI 19 NOVEMBRE 2021 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 369 prepare for, cope with and recover from shocks. Trade also plays a key role in diversifying access to global goods and services ; for example, it enables countries to cope with shocks by switching suppliers when crises disrupt established supply relationships, whether domestic or foreign. Firms that participate in trade, especially exports, have a greater likelihood of surviving economic downturns, due to their higher productivity, on average, than firms in non-exporting sectors, as wellas their tendency to have access to more diversified markets. More global cooperation More trade cooperation at the multilateral or regional level, backed by strong international trade rules, can support the various domestic strategies deployed to avoid and mitigate risks and to prepare for, manage and recover from shocks. Risk reduction measures and resilience policies in one country can have positive spillovers in other countries, but in the absence of global coordination, the adoption of such policies by individual countries is likely to be less than optimal from a global perspective. Cooperation also can help to limit the use of policies that can have negative spillovers for trading partners, such as export restrictions or subsidies. Trade cooperation can help to achievemore open markets and more inclusive, stable and predictable trade that promotes the diversification of products, suppliers and markets, thus improving resilience to shocks. Cooperation can also promote greater transparency, information-sharing and predictability in the global marketplace, helping WCMILDTRADE OAC.NI7M1TION WORLD TRADE REPORT 2021 Econonur resilienee and trade 84:Fx 6.8  : The Impact er CCIVICI.19 on the inurlim secte'r and etanamy of hl aur11.1us the ouldreak u1COVIb-19 han bnaughl a hall to ihe lounum seê1a. m M5un11215. Thé wen2 OIT:iule as laa.1 lOckdown tram raid-Prkumh idrnid-Jure 2020 wOh/11E 1E51 ware.51 Cf:NID-19, and again mildarob 2021 tel.h the meutind valve. fhllturiLlhe cloard At borde% when the l'ire. COVICI-19 cases ware disciwered and rampe:lad'hein on 1 °Cube 2020. huwarer. arnardeory guarantine penad u1 Iwo weekt *n5 plus:lui:ad ka 511 lrareFlarà enfarine Maiurnara. Pros mandalery guarankret penud 22e5 az 22 naja. cantaxaml Ca laurcd ICP.e3 in Micuriticii. as laie areTage'engin of a mural xlay is 10 Ca t2 data. HaUrelka launched a new one-year eza in °nimber 2020. wrlh Oie paa52bili10 vI furfhe erlemiuês, lb Prisai die damage caused lô ! ha travel and Churatra zh:Cor ecir Che pandenit. The preniurn rira largeted laurizto, rearacs seeking a sofa heneen ! rom 1.he virus and profasziunalà (I.e. rerdsle wôrkers) whu whsh lu ba ifl MitUrellua with thair fa:22.111M. theso ri:Mars Ware nul allowed fo enfer lira labour martial. Fiuwerer.1411bwing Oie emergerice uf'Me new shama al aunhut banned en1ry1or ail hawaiien.up io 30 Jure 2021. the 1ounam Sauter. 2vhiûhncuunted kir 16.8 paf can ! of abf. and 19.1 per Len ! ul total erploymen1 in 2009, u  : 1acing a Severn Slow-down. ln 2020 Count. arrimes fell lry 77.7 per cadI and laninom earning.5 by 72 pere.21t camp:2Tel la the preinun }eau.'the brai guarler 0f 2021 saw a lerthar dra5.1iê drag al tarirais by 99.1 par cent ralabre 1u the 5a.me m'ad in 2020 Kiurernrreerrl of MaurIllibi 21320} [sen Figure El.15). the arihuribes n 1.hiurTbus adopted Iin% raye Amis-lande &Alarme fiée and lie &11-Ernplayrnerà ASaistûriêa Schéma (SUS) ta Cregalelhe suciu-euunormc erapEcfle of CûVID-10. the Umar taige1a hommasses, allowing ! heir empidyaer Ld draw arnughly have wage alup ta UT& 1.2511 tira SERS =B>§ ! Ël&I-erreiplomd persdriz vaiô have 5uffered a 12255 a1 rarenue &Jaïn'Chef.auk.duwn. Aruund 2l billion Yaurifian rupee.s were ehhurzet1 fo  : [hese I du financial assr5tance plans during 21-ê confineman1s al 21220 and 2021. Aimas'16,700 emptôyer5 requested1he rouge assislanne 52.herne5. wh.la 256.079 seli-eMplorad Worker5 berielilLed 12.6212212a SEAS. In the luuriam indusay as al July 2020. an enuuntul saune 2 Mon Chunliati pupea'S had heendieursed Ch mare l'han 39,000 empluyaeS unde the WAS, while an esbmaled 20 reiûni thiunban rupee5 had deen ch5bearted ld arênald 1,5913 self-emplued workers under the SÉP.S. the aullhanfier  : have mania-lied bath tscherre5 1dr wôrker5 in thé iburiarnindiutdry'ka a5 fuolg aa km.rder5 are clatied. In atddrliah.around 9 billion Illaznicanrnipaeel wee pravided by 1hd Nale.ro1145../erine Femd la svapari Av Saaerlaua.ihe m'Imm.,'m'aie al MiwrIllue.. Maunlvin trubb5rdieïr have.rade ihe vaui.xualan of 60 per een  : lire papulàime a precpa.cl.±Ire1or Teatartng1kle 1.6-Jrism9etiur.endnly lor YdLX nitden wa5gveê Id froolline wurkers, riluding andin/tee:Mille leunen indue !. Figure k1.15  : Tourist arrivais and taurlsm earnings an Ma Linlius ca 0apsed du ring lie CÛVI >1'S luisis La 2020 countries to better assess production capacities, avoid bottlenecks, manage inventory stocks and prevent excessive stockpiling, enhancing the ability to respond to crises. One example of resilience-enhancing information sharing is the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), a platformof international agencies including the WTO, that tracks supplies of key agricultural commodities, reassuring countries when supplies are adequate and providing a forum for coordinated policy responses when needed. Policies can have opposite effect Restricting trade and promoting national self-sufficiency almost inevitably render national economies less efficient in the long Services trade, particularly tourism, can be sharply affected by shocks The World Trade Report 2021 takes the example of Mauritius on the topic of tourism. Having caused international tourist arrivals to drop by 74 per cent in 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 represents the worst shock to international tourism in recent decades. Widespread travel bans and limited face-to-face interactions to contain the virus have restricted international cross-border movements and trade in tourism-related services (see, for example, Box B.6 on the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism industry in Mauritius). LA TOUR run, as such policies ultimately driveup prices of goods and services and restrict access to products, components and technologies. While national supply chains can reduce exposure to risksemanating from other countries, they increase domestic vulnerability to supply cut-offs and demand shocks resulting from domestic disasters. Furthermore, economic self-sufficiency is an illusory goal. In technologically advanced sectors, modern production requires a vast and complex array of global inputs that cannot be supplied by any single country. Even national self-sufficiency in food production is dependent on imports of fertilizers, farmmachinery or energy to maintain sufficient agricultural output. For example, even the highly diversified European Union needed to import 40 per cent of its COVID-19 test kits and diagnostic reagents during the pandemic ; and one of the US manufacturers of the COVID-19 vaccine depends on sourcing 280 components from 19 different countries to produce the final product (Pfizer, 2021). Vulnerability and resilience  : two sides of the same globalization coin The world economy has faced various crises in recent years, but perhaps none has been as truly global in terms of reach, impact and visibility as COVID-19. More than ever before in living memory, all of humanity is focused on the same global threat, and all of humanity is dependent on the same global solutions  : vaccines, social distancing and the necessity of maintaining an open world economy. The reality that « no one is safe until everyone is safe » is now true on a planetary scale (WTO, 2021a). Today’s highly interconnected global economy is part of the problem, by making it easier for shocks like COVID-19 to reverberate and amplify around the world ; but it is also potentially part of the solution, by making it easier to mobilize the economic and technological resources the world needs in order to respond to shocks when they occur. That globalization – the growing transborder movement of people, goods, services, capital and ideas – has made the world increasingly complex, integrated and interdependent, is self-evident. Yet, at the same time, today’s interdependent global economy has turned out to be remarkably resilient to these shocks, and possibly more resilient than many would have expected. This is not to underestimate the massive economic devastation that has been caused by COVID-19, including widespread unemployment, mass shutdowns of businesses, and the sharpest economic contraction since the Great Depression nor to overlook how the crisis has disproportionately harmedcertain groups and countries, especially the poorest and most vulnerable, which were already the most exposed to economic downturns and the least protected or cushioned from shocks. One reason for the system’s resilience is that networked economies are better placed than isolated ones to pool resources, share expertise and diversify their sources of supply. The early stages of the pandemic exposed how reliant many countries had become on relatively few global producers of critical medical supplies, such as face masks or ventilators, prompting widespread calls for greater supply chain diversification. But what became clear over subsequent months was not only how quickly supply chains adapted and new producers emerged, but how the key to greater diversification lay in expanding and facilitating trade with other partners, not restricting or reshoring it. More resilience requires more, not less, global economic cooperation At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic – as borders closed, trade fell, and shortages of critical medical and other supplies spiked – many concluded that today’s open, complex and interconnected global economy was part of the problem, not the solution. They argued that globalization had gone too far, that economies had grown over-reliant on foreign suppliers, and that economic efficiency had been achieved at the expense of economic resilience – that « just in case » had been sacrificed for « just in time » (Lamy and Fabry, 2020). To protect against future shocks, and to make economies more robust and resilient, these critics suggested that global integration should be re-visited and rolled back, supply chains should be near-shored or re-shored, and domestic productive capacity should be rebuilt and made more self-sufficient (Shih, 2020). But a year later, the conclusions that can be drawn from the crisis look different. Trade, far from being an economic liability, turned out to be an economic lifeline, as it ensured that, even when countries were paralysed by the pandemic, critical goods, services and medical supplies continued to flow. Conversely, measures to restrict trade, hoard domestic supplies, and reinforce national self-sufficiency, far from reducing economic insecurity, served to increase it, by disrupting supply chains, slowing production and sowing economic uncertainty. In fact, the biggest policy failure of the pandemic so far has been the uneven rollout and distribution of vaccines, and this is partly a result of too much economic nationalism and too little coordinated global action (El-Erian, 2021). Likewise, the biggest threat to global resilience in the future will not just be the arrival of new and unforeseen shocks, but the inability of national governments to respond in a coordinated and cooperative way, as a result of rising geopolitical tensions between key powers, growing trade protectionism and a fragmenting global economy (Financial Times, 2020 ; Goldin, 2020). 5

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