BIZweek n°334 19 mar 2021
BIZweek n°334 19 mar 2021
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  • Parution : n°334 de 19 mar 2021

  • Périodicité : hebdomadaire

  • Editeur : Capital Publications Ltd

  • Format : (260 x 370) mm

  • Nombre de pages : 9

  • Taille du fichier PDF : 3,9 Mo

  • Dans ce numéro : décrêt agricole entre les USA et les pays du sud de l'Afrique.

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VENDREDI 19 MARS 2021 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 334 - J c +liber Mau LA TOUR ler CONICIMIS " mis NOIAN OC EA N SOU th Africa Population (Million)'10 20.0 4.011 60.0 84.0 Angola Al 32.9 Mormbique 31-3 ILadaeauar 27.7 Zambia 111.4 Liminal:me 14.9 Naniibia I 2 ; _g BoISYLSBEL I 2.4 Lesotho I 2.1 Mauritius 1.3 Eswatini 12 Per Capita Incarne (US $) 9_6 0 2,000 4:110.0 6,e00 8,000 10,000 Mauritius 39010 Botswana 7,000 Namibia 6,20.11. Smith Africa 4. ; 736 Estratiai 3,41.5 Angola 2,080 Zambie 1,600 Lesotho 1,300 Zimbabtre 950 Mozambique 1. 520 Madagascar I 360 The United States and Southern Africa Agricultural Trade Decreases Due to COVID-19 The partial and full lockdowns implemented globally including in Southern Africa to address COVID-19, severely disrupted the movement of people and agricultural trade in 2020. United States agricultural exports to Southern Africa were severely impacted by COVID-19, and decreased by 23 percent to US$483.7 million in 2020. In comparison, Southern African agricultural exports to the United States were more resilient and only decreased by 13 percent to US$883.2 million in 2020. This was due to more stringent measures that were placed on imports of liquor products by some countries, disruptions to supply chains, and decrease in demand due to low economic activities and consumer incomes as a result of COVID-19. Post expects improvements in agricultural trade in 2021, based on several countries lifting lockdown restrictions, improved management of supply chains, and increases in production of major crops following good rainfall received to date In 2020, most countries globally including in Southern Africa implemented full to partial lockdowns to address the COVID-19 pandemic. These lockdowns disrupted the movement of people and trade in 2020. Southern Africa is an important trading partner to the United States, with total agricultural trade ranging from US$983 million to about US$1.7 billion per year, since 2010. Due to the disruptions and measures implemented to address COV- ID-19 such as lockdowns, the United States and Southern Africa total trade decreased by 17 percent to US$1.4 billion in 2020, from US$1.6 billion in 2019. This report provides a detailed analysis of the impact of COV- ID-19 to trade between the United States and selected Southern African countries. For this report, Southern Africa refers to the countries that are covered by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) office in Pretoria, specifically, Angola, Botswana, Eswatini (Formerly Swaziland), Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Malawi is not included in the report as it is covered by the FAS office in Kenya. These selected Southern Africa have a total population of 194 Table 1  : United States and Southern Africa Trade SS million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020% Change 2020 vs 2019 U.S Experts te Southern Africa 411.0 518.0 627.3 601,1 625.1 483.7 -23% U.S Imports from Southern Africa 577.3 666.1 915.4 1.084.2 1.019.5 883.2 -13% Net Trade -166.3 -148.0 -288.1 -483.1 -394.4 -399.5 Source  : Trade Data Monitor million, which is about 59 percent of the total population of the United States. The per capita income of these selected countries ranges from US$360 to US$9,000, which is far too low in comparison to the U.S per capita income of US$53,240. Decline in United States and Southern Africa Agricultural Trade United States agricultural exports to Southern Africa were severely impacted by COVID-19, and decreased by 23 percent to US$483.7 million in 2020, from US$625.1 million in 2019. In comparison, Southern African exports to the United States only decreased by only 13 percent to US$883.2 million in 2020, from US$1 billion in 2019. This is based on more stringent measures that were placed on imports such as liquor products by some countries in comparison to their exports, disruptions to supply chains, decrease in demand due to low economic activities and incomes. The United States has been a net importer of agricultural products from Southern Africa since 2015. Importers and retailers indicate that the main challenge for increasing U.S agricultural exports to Southern Africa is the high external tariffs and absence of a preferential or free trade agreement. Major competitors, such as the European Union, UK and Mercosur countries, enjoy the advantages through a free trade agreement and preferential trade agreement, respectively. U.S agricultural exports to Southern Africa fluctuate between US$411 million and US$759 million. The fluctuations are mainly caused by the inconsistent trade in corn and wheat, whose demand is largely driven by drought and price competitiveness. U.S agricultural Imports from Southern Africa have grown from US$348 million in 2011, to a peak of 4 Cont’d on page 5
VENDREDI 19 MARS 2021 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 334 Table 2  : United States A ricultural Exports to Southern Africa S$ United States Exports to _Angola., Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Eswatini, Zambia, Zimbabwe Commodity  : BICO - Ail Codes Agricultural and Related Products Partner LA TOUR 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1/4 Change 2020 vs 2019 I TOTAL 410,960,277 518,029,238 627,251,442 601,067,128 625,062,460 483,687,117 -22.6% South Africa 241,794,138 353,606,765 397,781,540 362,839,339 398,339,673 351,705,892 -11.7% Angola 130,172,114 96,596,922. 169,458,823 196,596,510 163,947,469 89,000,860 -45.7% Zim-babi,iie 5,467,687 8,666,726 2,694,259 2,667,898 5,839,584 11 ; 652.,331 99.5% Madagascar 4,259,485 11,000,055 7401,265 2,797,083 5,969,193 10,097,812. 69.2% Es.watuu 4,711,225 6,170,292. 4,774,860 4,539,144 5,341,146 7,417,990 38.9% Namibia 9,059,926 9,591,812 7,866,191 5,091,2.38 3,053,192. 4,868,116 594% Mozambique 10,381,531 26,125,305 31,759,371 2.0,588,815 36,525,853 4,763,308 -87.0% Mauntius 4,222,894 4,047,628 4,923,681 5,416,237 4,848,476 3,335,342 -31.2% Zambia 804,411 689,277 821,540 465,854 815,349 690954 -15.3% Botswana 56,324 81,412. 63,312. 50,810 379,047 100,207 -73.6% Lesotho 30,542 1,453,044 6,600 14,200 3,478 54,305 1461.4% Source  : Trade Data Monitor Table 3  : United States A ricuitural Imports from Sonthern Africa (CTS United States Imports from Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Eswatini, Zambia, Zimbabwe Commodlity  : Group BICO - Agriculture and Related Products Annual Partner 2915 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020% Change 2020 vs 2019 TOTAL 577,280,435 666,053,057 915,367,146 1,084,206,936 1,919,509,758 883,198,893 -13.4% South Africa 335,201,043 322,110,575 378,019,789 425,674,714 452,392,486 454,104,478 0_4% Madagascar 12.9,663,533 2.39,384,910 42.1,72.4,761 537,094,601 430778,168 303,413 y 60 -2.9_6% Mauritius 48,193,855 50,395,998 49,286,2.78 64,849,22.3 71,553,973 51,521,492 -2.8_0% Mozambique 2.6,367,409 27,074,096 36,060,786 31,249,92.9 27,016,281 27,572,170 2_1% Zimbabwe 18,190 >054 13,786,291 14,842.,547 16,509,767 23,219,683 2.4,409,256 5_1% Eswatini 14,596 >225 11,293,190 13,173,807 6,681,744 11,676,424 15,700,811 34_5% Namibia 478,419 359,945 514,547 847,090 1,734,701 3,873,981 123_3% Zambia 503,998 658,685 1,563,702 905,851 1,020,011 2,407,100 136_0% Angola 4.084,599 980,167 65,784 276,817 23,02.5 96,941 321_0% Botsw2na 1,300 0 0 8,464 34,782 81,768 1351% Lesotho 0 9,200 115,145 108,736 60,22.4 17,136 -71_5% Source  : Trade Data Monitor US$1.1 billion in 2018, due to some countries taking advantage of the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) which allows duty free access for most Southern African countries, and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). United States Exports More Severely Impacted by COVID-19 Total U.S agricultural exports to Southern Africa decreased by 23 percent to US$484 million in 2020 due to the impact of COV- ID-19. United States agricultural exports to South Africa, Angola, Mozambique, Mauritius, Zambia and Botswana significantly decreased in 2020. Decreases in U.S exports to South Africa in 2020 were mainly caused by the domestic restrictions on liquor sales and imports which resulted in declines in alcohol beverages (mainly whisky) and ingredients used in the manufacture of alcoholic beverages (hops, malt, and grain sorghum). South Africa also had a record season for grains in 2020, which resulted in declines in imports of wheat and corn seed. The economic impact of COVID-19 to Southern African countries also resulted in decreases in demand for chicken, wheat, and beans from Angola ; soybean oil, wheat and corn flour from Mozambique ; and chicken from South Africa. While it is from a low base, U.S agricultural exports to Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Eswatini, Namibia, and Lesotho grew significantly in 2020. Increases in these U.S exports were due to the following products ; Zimbabwe (grain sorghum, peas including seeds, whey) ; Madagascar (grain sorghum, malt, peas, rice and peanuts) ; Eswatini (almonds, essential citrus fruit oils and mixtures of odoriferous substances used in the food and drink industries) ; Namibia (wheat and hake) ; Lesotho (vegetable fats and oils). South Africa and Angola are the largest importers of U.S agricultural products in the region, and accounted for 91 percent of the total U.S exports to Southern Africa in 2020. South Africa also serves as a gateway for distribution throughout the region. In 2020, U.S agricultural exports to South Africa accounted for 73 percent of the total exports to Southern Africa, followed by Angola (18 percent), Zimbabwe (2.4 percent), Madagascar (2.1 percent), Eswatini (1.5 percent), Namibia (1.0 percent), Mozambique (1.0 percent), Mauritius (0.7 percent) and Zambia (0.1 percent). Chicken cuts and its edible offal were the leading U.S agricultural export to Southern Africa accounting for 30 percent of the total exports in 2020, followed by animal feed preparations (8 percent), soybeans (5 percent), wheat (4 percent), almonds (4 percent) and food preparations (4 percent). Southern Africa Agricultural Exports to the U.S. Were Resilient Despite COVID-19 Total Southern Africa agricultural exports to the United States decreased by 13 percent to US$883 million in 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19. This decrease was only from three countries, Madagascar (cocoa beans and vanilla), Mauritius (tuna) and Lesotho (vegetable products). Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, agricultural exports from South Africa, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Eswatini, Namibia, Zambia, Angola and Botswana were more resilient and increased in 2020. Madagascar, South Africa and Mauritius accounted for 92 percent of the total U.S agricultural imports from Southern Africa in 2020. The main commodities imported by the United States from Southern Africa include vanilla (33 percent), citrus (11 percent), seafood (9 percent), cane sugar (8 percent), macadamia nuts (8 percent), and wine (6 percent). Most products exported by Southern African countries to the United States are considered health foods, hence their resilience and continued trade due to rising demand driven by health reasons during COVID-19. Cane sugar exports to the United States are largely driven by the duty-free access allocations to Mauritius, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Eswatini under the U.S Raw Sugar Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ). 2021 U.S. and Southern Africa Trade Forecasts United States agricultural exports to Southern Africa are forecast to rebound and improve in 2021 based on the pace of exports to date, several countries lifting lockdown restrictions, and improved management of supply chains. However, U.S. exports may still be partially affected by the slow economic growth in most Southern African countries due to the on-going impact of COVID-19. Post also expects improvements in Southern African agricultural exports to the U.S. in 2021, based on increases in production of major crops following good rainfall received in most countries and the pace of exports to date. [Source  : United States Department of Agriculture - 10 March 2021] 5

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