BIZweek n°330 19 fév 2021
BIZweek n°330 19 fév 2021
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  • Parution : n°330 de 19 fév 2021

  • Périodicité : hebdomadaire

  • Editeur : Capital Publications Ltd

  • Format : (260 x 370) mm

  • Nombre de pages : 9

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  • Dans ce numéro : la crise de liquidités des compagnies aériennes africaines.

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VENDREDI 19 FÉVRIER 2021 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 330 Remittances dechne, with some exceptions (InfIcrws to thc largest 1:IeDIE:pin g country reckpiDnts  : US$ bni., 21120 iétbridi alba Herkro PhillpOinim Fgpt Iii i Paitisun IFLInegiallejh titra ifiÉ Sources 1 he Eumamist Iraeffience Unit Warkl Oint Three of the world’s largest recipients of remittances (Mexico, Pakistan and Bangladesh) actually registered a rise in flows in 2020 compared with 2019 (of 4%, 9% and 8%, respectively, according to World Bank data). The increases were no doubt the result, at least in part, of a shared desire among migrants from these countries to support loved ones back home during an exceptional economic crisis. However, there are likely to be additional differing explanations, which could shed light on whether these increases will be replicated in 2021. A sharp depreciation of the peso at theonset of the pandemic encouraged the flow of remittances to Mexico from the US, as the value of remittances in local currency was artificially increased. Access to stimulus payments in the US is also likely to have supported these flows, even as unemployment rose while the pandemic progressed (more than 90% of Mexican migrants are based in the US, and many have access to social protection via resident status or a work permit). Going forward, remittances are likely to be supported by a fairly brisk recovery of the US economy throughout 2021, a fall in unemployment and the introduction of additional fiscal support measures. This means that Mexico could continue to see a rise in remittances in the near term, particularly as its own recovery remains slow and fragile. In Pakistan and Bangladesh, increased remittance inflows were likely tied to factors unique to 2020. These included the repatriation of overseas savings by nationals returning home after losing their jobs ; this trend was especially notable in the Gulf economies, which suffered greatly amid the crash in oil prices and tourism. The headline rise in remittances was probably also prompted by the shift in flows to formal channels, as travel restrictions complicated the informal transfer of remittances across borders—effectively meaning that the 2020 rise may be partially explained by an accounting change. The introduction of new remittance tax incentives by the authorities—in 2020 by Pakistan and in 2019 by Bangladesh— could also have boosted flows, but those effects may well be temporary. The one-off nature of these factors increases the risk of remittances falling in 2021. This could be problematic for Pakistan and Bangladesh, which both ran pre-Covid current-account deficits and rely on remittances for a sizeable share of current-account credits (40% and 29%, respectively, in 2019). POST SCRIPTUM Asia’s exceptionalism Three other large recipients in Asia (China, India and Vietnam) saw their remittance inflows fall in 2020 compared with 2019 (by 13%, 9% and 8%, respectively). However, all face only modest pressures on their current accounts, and should therefore be able to navigate the drop in remittances without encountering serious issues. China relies on remittances for only a small share of its current-account credits (a mere 2% in 2019). The country’s current account has long been in surplus, and goods exports remained fairly resilient amid the pandemic-induced trade disruptions of 2020. (China’s economic recovery started in the second quarter of 2020, while the rest of the world was sinking ; unlike in other countries, Chinese factories were open to meet high global demand for consumer electronics and other items). Vietnam faces a similar situation ; remittances accounted for just 6% of current-account credits in 2019, the current account is solidly in surplus and goods exports increased in 2020. Hence, for these countries, a fall in remittances presents a minimal balance-of-payments risk. India faces slightly more pressure, although it is far from being the most vulnerable country. Remittances account for a significant share of current-account credits (13% in 2019), but not nearly as much as for other major recipient countries (see below). India traditionally runs a current-account deficit, which will return in 2021 after a decline in imports generated a temporary surplus in 2020. However, the deficit will be constrained in the medium termas the government’s « self-reliant India » initiative looks set to cut the import bill. FDI flows willalso remain strong and offer further support to the balance of payments—like China, India saw an increase in foreign capital inflows in 2020 (of 13%), bucking the global downward trend. The most vulnerable Apart from a few exceptional cases, most remittance-receiving countries are in a very difficult position. Many registered a steep fall in remittances in 2020 compared with 2019, such as the Kyrgyz Republic, which suffered a 22% drop. This group also tended to run current-account deficits before the pandemic (Haiti was an exception, largely owing to remittance flows). They also rely on remittances for a large share of their current-account credits, exceeding 20% 600 1I 811 60 40 for most of them in 2019 (see chart). The sources of this vulnerability are varied. Many of these countries (including the Kyrgyz Republic, Nepal, Tajikistan and Tonga) are small economies with limited international trade. Others, such as Ukraine, have suffered shocks to their external sectors amid the pandemic, compounding the impact of the fall in remittances inflows. In other cases, such as the Philippines, pandemic-induced travel restrictions have prompted a collapse in tourism that has increased balance-of-payments imbalances. Egypt has faced a similar situation, with global trade disruptions compounding the fall in tourism by reducing traffic on the Suez Canal. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s trade balance slipped into deficit in 2020 owing to the drop in oil prices and oil production cuts coordinated by OPEC. The fall in remittances, and their expected continued decline in 2021, present significant challenges for these countries—particularly if their reliance on remittances grows in the immediate term. This places these countries at increased risk of experiencing financial crises that would only prolong their post-pandemic recovery. If one emerging economy experiences such a crisis, financial contagion could ensue and destabilize other developing countries. Wider economic and social costs Beyond balance-of-payments concerns, the pandemic-induced drop in remittances willalso have broader negative economic and social impacts. Across the main recipient countries, the drop in remittances will constrain consumption, delaying the economic recovery. This will be particularly felt in (often poorer) communities that disproportionately rely on remittances for their financing needs. In some cases, the situation may be especially challenging. The Indian state of Kerala, for example, faces the daunting prospect of havingup to 500,000 workers return from overseas amid the pandemic ; migrant remittances account for nearly one-third of the state’s GDP. This comes at an inopportune time for these countries. Nearly all will face protracted economic recoveries from the pandemic, with many unlikely to see widespread vaccination of their populations before 2023 or 2024 (if at all). A decline in remittances means a narrowing of a vital safety net, raising the risk of worsening poverty and hardship across the world. 0 8
VENDREDI 19 FÉVRIER 2021 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 330 ROI)RIGUE DEBRIEF CLIMATE CHANGE British High Commission to host ‘COP26  : Climate Voices and Ambitions of Rodrigues’As hosts of the COP26 Climate Change conference this November in Glasgow, Scotland, the British High Commission, in partnership with Rodrigues Regional Assembly, is organising a « COP26  : Climate Voices and Ambitions of Rodrigues » Conference at the Cotton Bay Hotel, Rodrigues on 25 February 2021 This conference builds on the event held a few months ago in Mauritius when the British High Commission partnered with the Government of Mauritius and the UN to host a ‘One Year to COP26’event. This conference in Rodrigues aims to bring together stakeholders, including the UN, civil society, businesses, local communities and the younger generation to highlight the challenges faced by small islands but also to highlight the important actions that are being taken by Rodrigues to address climate change. In addition to His Excellency the British High Commissioner, Keith Allan, Serge Clair, G.C.S.K. Chief Commissioner of Rodrigues and Kavydass Ramano, Minister of Environment, Solid Waste Management and Climate Change, will participate. Ahead of COP26, the UK wishes to amplify their voices, facilitate access to funding to help build resilience, and support a green recovery and protection of Développement durable  : KFC Mauritius bannit les bouteilles d’eau en plastique Après les sacs, les pailles et les gobelets, c’est au tour des bouteilles d’eau en plastique de disparaître des restaurants KFC. À cet effet, la chaîne de restauration rapide procède actuellement à l’installation de fontaines d’eau dans l’ensemble de ses points de vente. Ce changement, qui est d’ores et déjà en cours, s’inscrit dans le cadre de l’engagement pris par KFC Mauritius pour bannir, de manière progressive, l’utilisation du plastique de ses opérations. Une fois les fontaines d’eau opérationnelles, les clients pourront acheter leur gobelet biodégradable à Rs 10 et se resservir s’ils le souhaitent. La chaîne de restauration rapide s’est lancée dans un programme visant à supprimer le plastique de ses points de vente, ce qui a mené au remplacement des pailles en plastique en 2019. 181111elea. « JIM their biodiversity. These objectives align with UK’s commitment to supporting climate-vulnerable countries such as Mauritius and Rodrigues. For many years, the UK has been committed to supporting the vital work undertaken by NGOs related to environmental conservation in Rodrigues. In fact, the Mauritian Wildlife Foundation and Shoals Rodrigues have both received funding to ensure the prosperous continuation of their initiatives in the last year. 9 L RFC 1 ^13 TO PLASTIC 1100.'5 Signature de deux partenariats stratégiques entre Sun Resorts Cancer Trust, Link to Life et EnnReveEnnSourir A l’occasion de la journée internationale du cancer de l’enfant le 15 février, Sun Resorts en partenariat avec C-Care (Mauritius) Ltd, a invité une vingtaine d’enfants du Cancer Ward de l’hôpital Victoria à passer une journée au Sugar Beach. Cette journée spéciale a aussi été l’occasion de signer deux partenariats entre Sun Resorts Cancer Trust et deux associations, Link to life et Ene ReveEnnSourir. Pour rappel, le Sun Resorts Cancer Trust a pour mission de lever des fonds pour soutenir le traitement des enfants atteints du Cancer au sein du Sun Children Cancer Ward de l’hopital Victoria. Le Groupe MCB réalise des profits de Rs 3, 8 milliards (-28,1%) Le Groupe MCB a réalisé des bénéfices nets de l’ordre de Rs 3, 8 milliards pour les six mois se terminant au 31 décembre 2020, ce qui représente une baisse de 28, 1% par rapport à la période correspondante en 2019. Cette baisse des profits après taxes du Groupe est largement attribuable à une augmentation des Expected Credit Losses (ECL), soit de l’ordre de 1, 5 milliard. Pour la période sous revue, et ce malgré une situation difficile, les revenus opérationnels du Groupe se sont élevés à 10, 9 milliards, soit à un niveau proche de la période précédente. Moka Rangers Sports Club lance une équipe dédiée au running Le running fait de plus en plus d’adeptes à Maurice. Et pour cause, cette discipline sportive, qui allie plaisir et défi physique, permet de se détendre et de garder la forme. Conscient de cet engouement, Moka Rangers, le club multisports de la Smart City de Moka a décidé d’inclure cette discipline dans son offre. Depuis le vendredi 12 février 2021, les passionnés de course à pied, qu’ils soient amateurs ou athlètes confirmés, peuvent s’inscrire pour profiter des séances d’entraînement multi-thèmes qui seront organisées une à deux fois par semaine sur divers sites à travers Moka. Les séances de running sont accessibles dès l’âge de 14 ans, quel que soit le niveau du coureur. Les entraînements auront lieu les mardis et les jeudis de 17 heures à 18 heures 30 dans différents lieux, allant de La Promenade aux champs de cannes, en passant par le Pouce et le terrain de football du Lycée des Mascareignes. MC Vision récompense les gagnants de son jeu concours en ligne Samedi 30 janvier, les rivaux Manchester United et Arsenal s’affrontaient. Match très attendu à Maurice, les fans trépidaient d’impatience de voir leur équipe respective gagner. C’est dans cette optique que MC Vision/CANAL+ Maurice a mis en place le jeu concours « Ki lekip pou met premie gorl ». La remise des prix s’est tenue, le 10 février, au Head-office de MC Vision à Curepipe. Ainsi, Vikesh Appadoo, die-hard mancunien, a remporté un maillot officiel signé par un des joueurs de Manchester United. Il se dit très content d’avoir remporté ce précieux cadeau. « C’est la première fois que je remporte un jeu organisé par MC Vision/CANAL+ Maurice. Je leur dis un grand merci pour cette opportunité qui nous permet de créer de bons souvenirs. » [1 week ADMINISTRATCON Jessie Bappaya MARKETING ET PUBLICITÉ Emall 5, Antonio Street, Part Louis Tél ; ; 4-230I 21.11744 2111743 I Par +230) 21371,1,4 émail  : lazweek.redaction@gmaitcom 9

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