BIZweek n°323 1er jan 2021
BIZweek n°323 1er jan 2021
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  • Parution : n°323 de 1er jan 2021

  • Périodicité : hebdomadaire

  • Editeur : Capital Publications Ltd

  • Format : (260 x 370) mm

  • Nombre de pages : 6

  • Taille du fichier PDF : 2,5 Mo

  • Dans ce numéro : risque économique au-delà de la crise Covid.

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VENDREDI 01 JANVIER 2021 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 323 Real GD, 2021 1% Change. yeal en yeat 1 Greater thon 6.2596 5.17696 td 62595 3.759h Io 5.0096 ▪ 250% to 375% M 1.25% te 2_50% 0 W 125% ▪ Negative growlta Data rot availableiewre ne [calomel IntellRence Unit. enernrnan adopta permareneireArLdire LowarniroghaulnannA.esen cnnlinnes int, 7671 beed htheatInn11.11oeinral haut ttineves Lena'Cennuh. darnenc1nng Inffler unficInnu, 1 lg setter LL.11'.,1,1'IntLL. the'tl. dl CCnrl 11.c is LnilLiamy coup as snauity ton es tiare rMlian Jahoriumlol Nerryl wculny ahroaLl laure Uern tenture yucILly ryril Inn,urnonl filaire. tep. dam Inch EL, deneoLnrlrll Mer Cat10 VaaRa 6a Mauritanie Mali The Garner* Gu'nen.. klra Rata Bissau Gvinea Sierra Leone Frei GDP Gragth Mb choke, roi- al Mar)  : 70,7,7:.35% 7021  : 1. i% LA TOUR A REPORT BY THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Risk Outlook  : Plenty to worry about beyond Covid Managing risk in an increasingly bifurcated world in the midst and aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic will continue to dominate the thoughts of risk managers. Divergent recovery speeds, differing policy responses, global supply-chain readjustments and ever-present political instability create an enormously challenging global business environment. Looking beyond that, there is a long tail of country risks, not directly related to—but many clearly exacerbated by—Covid-19 that businesses are going to have to understand to ensure that they can be managed Niger Cen crcl Ubena Afar Fe J CatnernnnCôte d'Ivoire j GNC Ghana Toge r Benin - Sie Temé $ Principe Equatorial Gulneo - Cange {Brai:Enfile) 9NbiLUNty.fripait Moderryie Vin ive, Modane.. J. r o 11 17 10 ke a We are forecasting global economic growth of 4.2% year on year in 2021, on the back of an anticipated 4.7% contraction in global output this year. Of course, this number masks enormous regional disparities. We are forecasting huge divergence in the speed of recovery for individual economies, based on multiple factors  : fiscal space and commitment ; monetary policy flexibility ; sectoral composition ; severity and timing of lockdown measures ; export market exposure ; and labor market dynamics and demographics. This divergence, straddling as it does already inflame global trade tensions, cements our expectation of an increasingly bifurcated world. We have produced a series of analyses that spotlight key issues to watch at a country level in 2021 (Things to watch in 2021). Our core scenario for these countries, in terms of their recovery, is informedby the above checklist. However, there are other recurring themes that will shape the growth outlook and the business environment for these markets in the coming years. 1. Global trade and supply chains are being reshaped – countries are striving to diversify their export markets and jostling to capture redirected manufacturing investment, while companies are concurrently seeking to diversify their supply chains. 2. The reassessment of the risk versus reward equation – as companies weighup labour costs, political stability, FDI policy and the benefits of localisation Sc Lilh 5,17Lr, Ibru Di bC, J1 Ugine Rwanda Kenya I :. I - Serhelles RU11111,1-% gagé Nue 1, 4 Prettanan olaMblçtle - eSwatia Lesotho Murillo South Africa  : lùsy Cf/PC:fuel (% diane yl.denri paner) ? LW 7.77i ;/021:13% iktnn.in nreiNLIN lenfrid bedilt Execureguu lai Colon Lnnnkra rime as pLar.l. Vert'IMpr » elho faell « Mimer « romains Ilono Hnenly IrtIleteLlpeetelle mrfÉnnwu rossa 41 elyhe A SVILIAr t unra1111.x. y, nhllru rafllglml B lis nounun,r.iyy. plurale,. if d henei,v, versus specialism—will create new investment hotspots and strengthen some existing investment centres. There will be some limits on supply-chain rebalancing  : the benefits of specialisation will be hard for both companies and economies to giveup, and companies willalso have to accept higher production costs. 3. Political instability continues to be a threat – joblessness, poverty levels and rising inequality have only been worsened by Covid-19. 4. Many countries are newly prioritising substantial investment in infrastructure – financing models will vary amid widespread fiscal constraints, but with record-low interest rates in many places helping. Infrastructure investment will be pursued to facilitate job creation and, in some cases, to try to keep the potential for social unrest at bay. Risks to our core country forecasts abound. Accelerated vaccine rollout and an unleashing of pentup demand could cause several countries to surge ahead on this chart. Conversely, in other countries the labour market may be severely diminished for an extended period, weighing on post-pandemic demand and creating recovery laggards. NOTE  : The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. 3

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