BIZweek n°320 11 déc 2020
BIZweek n°320 11 déc 2020
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  • Parution : n°320 de 11 déc 2020

  • Périodicité : hebdomadaire

  • Editeur : Capital Publications Ltd

  • Format : (260 x 370) mm

  • Nombre de pages : 8

  • Taille du fichier PDF : 3 Mo

  • Dans ce numéro : rapport sur les emissions 2020.

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VENDREDI 11 DÉCEMBRE 2020 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 320 0C CP 0 00 0 el" kjik,11., 67- UNEP DTU PARTNERSHIP LA TOUR EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2020 Are we on track to bridging the gap ? Absolutely not. U N (i e environment programme Finissions Gap Report 2020 "IMOIMOIM..m. Mifflifflr. I 4 The eleventh edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report has been produced in a year where the COVID-19 crisis has dominated the news and policymaking and has caused immense suffering and economic and social disruption worldwide. The report has been released on the 9th December. This economic disruption has briefly slowed – but far from eliminated – the historic and ever-increasing burden of human activity on the Earth’s climate. This burden is observable in the continuing rise in extreme weather events, including wildfires and hurricanes, and in the melting of glaciers and ice at both poles. The year 2020 has set new records – they will not be the last Cont’d on page 5
VENDREDI 11 DÉCEMBRE 2020 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 320 Although 2020 emissions will be lower than in 2019 due to the COVID-19 crisis and associated responses, Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, with the immediate reduction in emissions expected to have a negligible long-termimpact on climate change. However, the unprecedented scale of COVID-19 economic recovery measures presents the opening for a low-carbon transition that creates the structural changes required for sustained emissions reductions. Seizing this opening will be critical to bridging the emissions gap, according to the Emissions Gap Report 2020 which has been released by the United Nations Environment Programme on December 9. The main findings are as follows  : GHG emissions continued to increase in 2019 Global GHG emissions continued to grow for the third consecutive year in 2019, reaching a record high of 52.4 GtCO2e (range  : ±5.2) without land-use change (LUC) emissions and 59.1 GtCO2e (range  : ±5.9) when including LUC. Over the last decade, the top four emitters (China, the United States of America, EU27+UK and India) have contributed to 55 per cent of the total GHG emissions without LUC. The top seven emitters (including the Russian Federation, Japan and international transport) have contributed to 65 per cent, with G20 members accounting for 78 per cent. The ranking of countries changes dramatically when considering per capita emissions. CO2 emissions could decrease by about 7 per cent in 2020 compared with 2019 emission levels due to COVID-19 The reduction in GHG emissions in 2020 due to COVID-19 is likely to be significantly larger than the 1.2 per cent reduction during the global financial crisis in the late 2000s. Studies indicate that the biggest changes have occurred in transport, as COV- ID-19 restrictions were targeted to limit mobility, though reductions have also occurred in other sectors. Sustained reductions in emissions to reach net zero CO2 are required to stabilize global warming, while achieving net-zero GHG emissions will result in a peak then decline in global warming. The COVID-19 crisis offers only a short-termreduction in global emissions and will not contribute significantly to emissions reductions by 2030 If the initial short-termdip in CO2 emissions is followed by growth trends with lower decarbonization rates due to countries’potential rollback of climate policies as part of COVID-19 responses, the decrease in global emissions by 2030 is projected to be significantly smaller at around 1.5 GtCO2e and may actually increase by around 1 GtCO2e compared with the pre-COV- ID-19 current policies scenario. There is a significant opportunity for countries to integrate low-carbon development in their Inger Andersen, Executive Director – UNEP « We are heading for a world that is 3.2°C warmer by the end of this century » As the world deals with the ongoing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the climate crisis has not gone away. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions hit a new high in 2019. The year 2020 is on course to be the warmest on record. Wildfires, storms and droughts continue to wreak havoc while glaciers melt at unprecedented rates. The pandemic-linked economic slowdown is expected to cause a drop ofup to 7 per cent in carbon dioxide emissions this year. However, as the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2020 shows, this dip will have an insignificant impact on the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, and pursuing 1.5°C, unless the international community prioritizes a green recovery. The report says that the expected 2020 fall in emissions translates to a 0.01°C reduction of global warming by 2050. Overall, we are heading LA TOUR COVID-19 rescue and recovery measures, and to incorporate these into new orupdated NDCs and long-termmitigation strategies that are scheduled to be available in time for the reconvened twenty sixth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 26) in 2021. The growing number of countries that are committing to net-zero emissions goals by around midcentury is the most significant and encouraging climate policy development of 2020 The following G20 members have net-zero emissions goals  : France and the United Kingdom, which have legally enshrined their 2050 net-zero GHG emissions goals ; the European Union, which aims to achievenet-zero GHG emissions by 2050 ; China, which announced plans to achievecarbon neutrality before 2060 ; Japan, which announced a goal of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 ; the Republic of Korea, the president of which committed the country to becoming carbon neutral by 2050 in a speech to parliament ; Canada, which has indicated its intention to legislate a goal of net zero emissions (though it is unclear if this refers to just CO2 or all GHGs) by 2050 ; South Africa, which aims to achievenet-zero carbon emissions by 2050 ; and Argentina and Mexico. As at mid-November 2020, nine G20 members (Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States of America) have submitted long-termlow GHG development strategies to the UNFCCC, all of which were submitted before net-zero emissions goals were adopted. Although the recent announcements of net zero emissions goals are very encouraging, they highlight the vast discrepancy between the ambitiousness of these goals and the inadequate level of ambition in the NDCs for 2030. Furthermore, there is inconsistency between the emission levels implied by current policies and those projected under current NDCs by 2030, and, more importantly, those necessary for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Collectively, G20 members are projected to overachievetheir modest 2020 Cancun Pledges, but they are not on track to achievetheir NDC commitments In line with previous Emissions Gap Reports, this report pays close attention to G20 members, as they account for around 78 per cent of global GHG emissions and thereby largely determine global emission trends and the extent to which the 2030 emissions gap will be closed. Collectively, the G20 members are projected to overachievetheir 2020 Cancun Pledges, even without considering the expected impact of COVID-19. Collectively, the G20 members are not on track to achievetheir unconditional NDC commitments based on pre-COV- ID-19 projections. Nine of the 16 G20 members (counting the for a world that is 3.2°C warmer by the end of this century, even with full implementation of unconditional nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. There is good news in the finding that a green pandemic recovery could shaveup to 25 per cent off the emissions we would expect to see in 2030 with implementation of unconditional NDCs – bringing the world close to the 2°C pathway. The report identifies recovery measures to deliver these cuts while supporting other environmental, social and economic goals. These include direct support for zero-emissions technologies and infrastructure, reducing fossil fuel subsidies, and backing nature-based solutions – including large-scale landscape restoration and reforestation. Some G20 members have already announced green recovery measures. Yet COVID-19 fiscal spending, as at October 2020, had overwhelmingly supported the status quo or fostered new high-carbon investments. While there have also been stronger pledges on climate – including China targeting carbon neutrality by 2060, South Africa by 2050, and the Japanese and European Union net-zero GHG target of midcentury – they are EU27+UK as one), are on track (Argentina, China, EU27+UK, India, Japan, Mexico, the Russian Federation, South Africa and Turkey). Five G20 members are projected to fall short and therefore require further action (Australia, Brazil, Canada, the Republic of Korea and the United States of America). Projections for Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are inconclusive. Domestic and international shipping and aviation currently account for around 5 per cent of global CO2 emissions and are projected to increase significantly Combined, the shipping and aviation sectors currently account for approximately 2 GtCO2 per year (distributed evenly across the two sectors) and emissions have increased in the past decades. About 71 per cent of the CO2 emissions from shipping and 65 per cent of emissions from aviation are international and are not included in national totals reported to the UNFCCC but are instead added as memo items. International emissions are not covered under the NDCs of most signatories to the Paris Agreement. However, because ships and aircraft are often active on both domestic and international routes, there are synergies in addressing domestic and international shipping and aviation emissions. Lifestyle changes are a prerequisite for sustaining reductions in GHG emissions and for bridging the emissions gap Lifestyle emissions are influenced by social and cultural conventions, the built environment and financial and policy frameworks. Governments have a major role in setting the conditions under which lifestyle changes can occur, through shaping policy, regulations and infrastructure investments. At the same time, it is necessary for citizens to be active participants in changing their lifestyles through taking steps to reduce personal emissions and fostering societal change as consumers, citizens, owners of assets and members of communities. The participation of civil society is necessary to bring about wider changes in the social, cultural, political and economic systems in which people live. Equity is central to addressing lifestyles. The emissions of the richest 1 per cent of the global population account for more than twice the combined share of the poorest 50 per cent Compliance with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement will require reducing consumption emissions to a per capita lifestyle footprint of around 2–2.5 tCO2e by 2030. This means that the richest 1 per cent would need to reduce their current emissions by at least a factor of 30, while per capita emissions of the poorest 50 per cent could increase by around three times their current levels on average. yet to be reflected inupdated NDCs. Governments must go greener in the next stage of COVID-19 fiscal interventions and increase their NDC ambitions in 2021. The report finds that stronger action must include facilitating, encouraging and mandating changes in consumption behaviour by individuals and the private sector – enabling consumers to avoid high-carbon consumption by, for example, redesigning cities, making housing more efficient and promoting better, less wasteful diets. The wealthy bear the greatest responsibility in this area. The combined emissions of the richest 1 per cent of the global population account for more than twice the combined emissions of the poorest 50 per cent. This elite will need to reduce their footprint by a factor of 30 to stay in line with the Paris Agreement targets. The pandemic is a warning that we must urgently shift from our destructive development path, which is driving the three planetary crises of climate change, nature loss and pollution. But it is clearly also a major opportunity. I urge governments, businesses and individuals – particularly those with the greatest climate footprint – to take this opportunity to protect our climate and nature for decades to come. 5

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