BIZweek n°319 4 déc 2020
BIZweek n°319 4 déc 2020
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  • Parution : n°319 de 4 déc 2020

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  • Editeur : Capital Publications Ltd

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  • Nombre de pages : 9

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VENDREDI 04 DÉCEMBRE 2020 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 319 5 years ago, countries committed to limit global warming to « well below 2°C » as part of the landmark Paris Agreement. 5 years on, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions continue to rise steadily, with no convincing or sustained abatement, resulting in a rise in the global average temperature of 12°C. Indeed, the five hottest years on record have occurred since 2015. The changing climate has already produced considerable shifts in the underlying social and environmental determinants of health at the global level. Indicators in all domains of section 1 (climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities) are worsening. Concerning, and often accelerating, trends were seen for each of the human symptoms of climate change monitored, with the 2020 indicators presenting the most worrying outlook reported since The Lancet Countdown was first established. These effects are often unequal, disproportionately impacting populations who have contributed the least to the problem. This fact reveals a deeper question of justice, whereby climate change interacts with existing social and economic inequalities and exacerbates longstanding trends within and between countries. An examination of the causes of climate change revealed similar issues, and many carbon-intensive practices and policies lead to poor air quality, poor food quality, and poor housing quality, which disproportionately harmthe health of disadvantaged populations. Increasing heat-related mortality Vulnerable populations were exposed to an additional 475 million heatwave events globally in 2019, which was, in turn, reflected in excess morbidity and mortality. During the past 20 years, there has been a 537% increase in heat-related mortality in people older than 65 years, reaching a total of 296 000 deaths in 2018. The high cost in terms of human lives and suffering is associated with effects on economic output, with 302 billion h of potential labour capacity lost in 2019. India and Indonesia were among the worst affected countries, seeing losses of potential labour capacity equivalent to 4–6% of their annual gross domestic The next 5 years  : a joint response to two public health crises Dec 12, 2020, will mark the anniversary of the 2015 Paris Agreement, with countries set toupdate their national commitments and review these commitments every 5 years. These next 5 years will be pivotal. To reach the 15°C target and limit temperature rise to « well below 2°C », the 56 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) currently emitted annually will need to drop to 25 GtCO2e within only 10 years (by 2030). In effect, this decrease will require a 76% reduction every year, representing an increase in current levels of national government ambition of a factor of five. Without further intervention during the next 5 years, the reductions required to achievethis target increase to 154% every year, moving the 15°C target out of reach. The need for accelerated efforts to tackle climate change during the next 5 years will be contextualised by the impacts of, and the global response to, the COVID-19 pandemic. With the loss of life from the pandemic and from climate change measured in the hundreds of thousands, the potential economic costs measured in the trillions, and the broader consequences expected to continue for years to come, the measures taken to address both of these public health crises must be carefully examined and closely linked. Health product. In Europe in 2018, the monetised cost of heat-related mortality was equivalent to 12% of regional gross national income, or the average income of 11 million European citizens. Turning to extremes of weather, advancements in climate science allow for greater accuracy and certainty in attribution ; studies from 2015 to 2020 have shown the fingerprints of climate change in 76 floods, droughts, storms, and temperature anomalies. Furthermore, there was an increase in the number of days people were exposed to a very high or extremely high risk of wildfire between 2001–04 and 2016–19 in 114 countries. Correspondingly, 67% of global cities surveyed expected climate change to seriously compromise their public health assets and infrastructure. The changing climate has downstream effects, impacting broader environmental systems, which in turn harmhuman health. Global food security is threatened by rising temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme events ; global yield potential for major crops declined by 18–56% between 1981 and 2019. The climate suitability for infectious disease transmission has been growing rapidly since the 1950s, with a 150% increase for dengue caused by Aedes albopictus in 2018, and regional increases for malaria and Vibrio bacteria. Projecting forward, based on current populations, between 145 million people and 565 million people face potential inundation from rising sea levels. Climate change  : Reversal of previous positive trends Despite these clear and escalating signs, the global response to climate change has been muted and national efforts continue to fall short of the commitments made in the Paris Agreement. The carbon intensity of the global energy system has remained almost flat for 30 years, with global coal use increasing by 74% during this time. The reduction in global coal use that had been observed since 2013 has now reversed for the past 2 consecutive years  : coal use rose by 17% from 2016 to 2018. The health burden is substantial—more ACTA PUBLICA than 1 million deaths occur every year as a result of air pollution from coal-fired power, and some 390 000 of these deaths were a result of particulate pollution in 2018. The response in the food and agricultural sector has been similarly concerning. Emissions from livestock grew by 16% from 2000 to 2017, with 93% of emissions coming from ruminant animals. Likewise, increasingly unhealthy diets are becoming more common worldwide, with excess red meat consumption contributing to some 990 000 deaths in 2017. 5 years on from when countries reached an agreement in Paris, a concerning number of indicators are showing an early, but sustained, reversal of previously positive trends identified in past reports. A growing response from health professionals professionals are well placed to act as a bridge between the two issues, and analogically considering the clinical approach to managing a patient with COVID-19 might be useful in understanding the ways in which these two public health crises should be jointly addressed. Expected failure to meet target laid out in the Paris Agreement First, in an acute setting, a high priority is placed on rapidly diagnosing and comprehensively assessing the situation. Likewise, further work is required to understand the problem, including  : which populations are vulnerable to both the pandemic and to climate change ; how global and national economies have reacted and adapted, and the health and environmental consequences of these actions ; and which aspects of these shifts should be retained to support longer term, sustainable development. Second, appropriate resuscitation and treatment options are reviewed and administered, with careful consideration of any potential side-effects, the goals of care, and the life-long health of the patient. Economic recovery packages that prioritise outdated forms of energy and transport that are fossil fuel intensive will have unintended side-effects, unnecessarily adding to the 7 million people that die every year from air pollution. Instead, investments in health imperatives, such as renewable energy and clean air, active travel infrastructure and physical activity, and resilient and Despite little economy-wide improvement, relative gains have been made in several key sectors  : from 2010 to 2017, the average annual growth rate in renewable energy capacity was 21%, and low-carbon electricity was responsible for 28% of capacity in China in 2017. However, the indicators presented in the 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown suggest that some of the most considerable progress was seen in the growing momentum of the health profession’s engagement with climate change globally. Doctors, nurses, and the broader profession have a central role in health system adaptation and mitigation, in understanding and maximising the health benefits of any intervention, and in communicating the need for an accelerated response. In the case of adaptation in national health systems, this change is underway. Impressively, health services in 86 countries are now connected with their equivalent meteorological services to assist in health adaptation planning. At least 51 countries have developed plans for national health adaptation, and global spending in health adaptation rose to 53% of alladaptation spending in 2018–19, reaching US$184 billion in 2019. The health-care sector, which was responsible for 46% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2017, is taking early but important steps to reduce its own emissions (indicator 3.6). In the UK, the National Health Service has declared an ambition to deliver a net-zero health service as soon as possible, building on a decade of impressive progressin reducing delivery of care emissions by 57% since 1990, and by 22% when considering the service’s supply chain and broader responsibilities. Elsewhere, the Western Australian Department of Health used its 2016 Public Health Act to conduct Australia’s first climate and health inquiry, and the German Federal Ministry of Health has established a dedicated department on health protection and sustainability responsible for climate-related matters. Connections between health and climate change This progressis becoming more evenly distributed around the world, with 73% of countries making explicit references to health and wellbeing in their Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, and 100% of countries in the South-East Asia and Eastern Mediterranean regions doing so. Similarly, least-developed countries and small island developing states are providing increasing global leadership within the UN General Debate on the connections between health and climate change. Individual health professionals and their associations are also responding well, with health institutions committing to divest more than $42 billion worth of assets from fossil fuels. In academia, the publication of original research on health and climate changed has increased by a factor ofeight from 2007 to 2019. These shifts are being translated into the broader public discourse. From 2018 to 2019, the coverage of health and climate change in the media increased by 96% worldwide, outpacing the increased coverage of climate change overall, and reaching the highest observed point to date. Just as it did with advancements in sanitation and hygiene and with tobacco control, growing and sustained engagement from the health profession during the past 5 years is now beginning to filla crucial gap in the global response to climate change. climate-smart health care, willultimately be more effective than these outdated methods. Finally, attention turns to secondary prevention and long-termrecovery, seeking to minimise the permanent effects of the disease and prevent recurrence. Many of the steps taken to prepare for unexpected shocks, such as a pandemic, are similar to those required to adapt to the extremes of weather and new threats expected from climate change. These steps include the need to identify vulnerable populations, assess the capacity of public health systems, develop and invest in preparedness measures, and emphasise community resilience and equity. Indeed, without considering the current and future impacts of climate change, efforts to prepare for future pandemics are likely to be undermined. At every step and in both cases, acting with a level of urgency proportionate to the scale of the threat, adhering to the best available science, and practising clear and consistent communications, are paramount. The consequences of the pandemic will contextualise the economic, social, and environmental policies of governments during the next 5 years, a period that is crucial in determining whether temperatures will remain « well below 2°C ». Unless the global COVID-19 recovery is aligned with the response to climate change, the world will fail to meet the target laid out in the Paris Agreement, damaging public health in the short termand long term. 6
VENDREDI 04 DÉCEMBRE 2020 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 319 DAVIDE MALACRINO, Economist in the Research Department International Monetary Fund How the Rich Get Richer Detailed data on wealth are extremely rare, but 12-years of tax records (2004-2015) from Norway have opened a new window into wealth accumulation for individuals and their offspring. The Nordic country has a wealth tax that requires assets to be reported by employers, banks and other third parties in order to reduce errors from self-reporting. The data, which are made public under certain conditions, also make it possible to match parents with their children. The data show that an individual in the 75th percentile of wealth distribution who invested $1 in 2004 would have yielded $1.50 by the end of 2015—a return of 50 percent. A person in the top 0.1 percent would have yielded $2.40 on the same invested dollar—a return of 140 percent. Another significant finding  : High returns POST SCRIPTUM INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Wealth begets wealth. This simple concept of privilege has added to growing discontent with inequality that has escalated under the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic. A paper co-authored this year by economists from the IMF and other institutions confirms that wealthier people are more likely to earnhigher returns on their investments. It also shows that the children of wealthy people, while likely to inherit that wealth, aren’t necessarily going to make the same high returns on investments 14both bring individuals to the top of the wealth scale and prevent them from leaving it. Controlling for age, parental background and earnings, moving from the 10th percentile to 90th percentile of wealth distribution increases the probability of making it to the top 1 percent by 1.2 percentage points compared to an average probability of 0.89 percent. Why do rich people earnhigh returns ? Conventional wisdom suggests that richer individuals put more of their assets toward high risk investments, which can result in higher returns. But our research finds that wealthy people often earna higher return even on more conservative investments. Richer individuals enjoy pure « returns to scale » to their wealth. Specifically, for Global CAPEX is recovering, but a peak is years away After collapsing in the first wave of the pandemic and consequent lock-downs, global CAPEX has begun to recover. But even though 2021 is bound to see the recovery continue we think the short-termoutlook remains muted. Financial conditions are still very favorable in both Advanced Economies and Emerging Markets, but other factors lead us to believethat it will take years for global CAPEX investment to return to pre-crisis levels. Unprecedented fiscal spending is not crowding out private investment, as Quantitative Easing programs are creating strong demand for government debt and the current glut of savings. Private investment could be boosted further if governments oriented more funds toward public investment rather than spending, but it is still early to tell whether some of these plans will come to fruition. Capacity utilization is currently very low indicating little need for new investment, but structural changes in our mobility and spending patterns might trigger investment needs outside existing capacities. The consumer outlook however looks bleak in 2021 with China the only major economy where consumer demand is likely to exceed pre-crisis levels next year. This is probably a key factor behind the gloomy investment plans reported by companies in most AEs. ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) and especially green investment is much talked about in the context of a CAPEX cycle revival. But here too, with only 10% of total registered patents falling into a green investment category, hopes are probably best reined in. It looks likely that 2021 will bring some investmentupswing – we expect investment growth to broadly match overall GDP growth. But a major cyclical revival will have to wait for confidence to recover. [Oxford Economics, 30.11.2020] Global sentiment and growth index 1 25 - 0.75 - 0.25 -0.25 - -0.75 - — global CAPEX new orders indicator — global CAPEX growth (RHS) 3 1 - -3 - -5 - -7 -1.25 9 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Source Oxford Economics given portfolio allocation, individuals who are wealthier are more likely to get higher risk-adjusted returns, possibly because they have access to exclusive investment opportunities or better wealth managers. Financial sophistication, financial information, and entrepreneurial talent are also important. These characteristics make the returns to wealth persistent over time. This research is the first to quantify this mechanism and show that it is likely to matter empirically. Do high returns persist across generations ? The answer is a qualified yes. Wealth has a high degree of intergenerational correlation, but there are important differences in how returns to wealth accrue across generations. The children of the richest are likely to be very rich, but unlikely to get as high returns from this wealth as their parents did. This suggests that while money is perfectly inheritable, exceptional talent is not. 7

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