BIZweek n°269 6 déc 2019
BIZweek n°269 6 déc 2019
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  • Parution : n°269 de 6 déc 2019

  • Périodicité : hebdomadaire

  • Editeur : Capital Publications Ltd

  • Format : (260 x 370) mm

  • Nombre de pages : 7

  • Taille du fichier PDF : 1,8 Mo

  • Dans ce numéro : la crise économique en Inde.

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VENDREDI 06 DÉCEMBRE 2019 BIZWEEK ÉDITION 269 Is the Indian Economy Under Crisis ? The growth in India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has slid to 4.5 per cent. The GDP growth, the lowest in twenty-six quarters (six years), indicates that the Indian economy has slowed down dramatically. Industrial activity is at a standstill. The ‘Manufacturing Sector’grew by (-)0.1 per cent as compared to a growth of 6.9 per cent in Q2 2018-19. « IIP Manufacturing registered a growth rate of (-)0.4 per cent during the Q2 2019-20 as compared to 5.6 per cent during Q2 2018-19. » The’Mining and Quarrying Sector’has also been severely affected. « The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of Coal, Crude Oil and Natural Gas, and IIP Mining registered Growth rates of (-)10.3 per cent, (-)5.1 per cent, (-)2.6 per cent and (-)1.2 per cent, during Q2 of 2019-20. » The ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’sector, the source of livelihood for large sections of the society, shows a deceleration of growth ; the sector grew by 2.1 per cent as compared to 4.9 per cent in Q2 2018-19. The farmers are losing livelihoods. They are under extreme distress. The ‘Construction sector’has also decelerated, growing only at 3.3 per cent, as compared to growth of 8.5 per cent in Q2 2018- 19. Key indicators of the Construction sector, namely, production of Cement and consumption of finished Steel registered a growth rate of 0.3 per cent and 3.3 per cent respectively. Car sales are down ; factory output is low ; exports have dipped ; tax collection has gone down ; consumption in the rural sector is low ; demand for consumer goods is low. The only sector which has recorded a growth of 11.6 per cent, as compared to growth of 8.6 per cent in Q2 2018-19, is ‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services’. The 4.5 per cent growth in the GDP, data that comes from the organised sector, is not indicative of the true economic picture as it does not factor in the data from the unorganised sector. If the data from the unorganised sector were to be taken into consideration, the growth rate would dip far below 4.5 per cent and would be in the negative. Simply put, the Indian economy is going through a deep recession. The economic forecasts present a gloomy picture for the future of the Indian economy. The slowing down of the Indian economy is a major cause for concern. It is symbolic of a deeper malaise - economic mismanagement, misgovernance, lack of transparency, and a faulty policy formulation - that has afflicted the country. Underscoring the need to change the economic climate in the country, the former Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, a renowned economist, has said that a 4.5 per cent growth is unacceptable. The Modi government, however, blames it on external factors such as « trade war with China », and says India’s economic fundamentals are strong and that the economy is going to bounce back. In reality, however, the deceleration of the Indian economy started with Narendra Modi’s « demonetisation », a flawed policy, which shocked the Indian economy. A hasty and ill-implemented GST followed it. The LA TOUR ANALYSIS India’s Economic Crisis The Indian economy is facing a severe crisis. The data released by the Government of India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reflects the abysmal state of the economy s combination « demonetisation » with GST has had a devastating impact on key sectors of the economy. Both these policies gave the Modi government - and the bureaucratic machinery - anupper hand in unleashing « tax terrorism ». For the Modi government, they have acted as instruments to instil fear in the minds of businesspeople. With new tools of harassment, the government started persecuting legitimate business people of tax fraud. Consequently, business people are leaving the country. Deeply sceptical of investing in the economic system, High Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs) are refusing to invest, and entrepreneurs are unwilling to seek credit from the banking system. Farmers who makeup the bulk of the economy are in deep distress ; the SME (Smalland Medium Enterprise) sector, one of the engines of employment generation, is in deep distress. The Manufacturing, Real Estate, Construction, Mining sectors, most of which are massive employment generators, also at a standstill. The government has not paid attention to the economic cycle with internal demand. Instead of allowing the private sector to breathe and thrive, the government has been stifling growth with their unwise policies. Instead of focusing on creating an enabling economic environment, the Modi government is resorting to tax terrorism and harassment. Consequently, unemployment is rife - the highest in forty-five years. According to data released by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), unemployment is 7.48 per cent. The urban unemployment 3 rate for November 2019 stood at 8.89 per cent whereas rural unemployment stood at 6.43 per cent, according to data published by the CMIE. A state-wise analysis of unemployment shows that the four states with the highest rates of unemployment in the country are all ruled by the BJP. Goa takes the first place with 34.5 per cent unemployment ; Tripura comes second, with 25.9 per cent ; Himachal Pradesh comes third, with 23.3 per cent and Haryana stands fourth, with 20.7 per cent. The CMIE’s figures are in line with the findings of the latest Periodic Labour Force Survey, which has estimated the worst unemployment rates in 45 years. Mr Modi came to power on the promise of growth, development and good governance. Ironically, the promise of Acche Din (Ndlr  : good days) is nothing more than an election ‘jhumla’, a feku’s promise. Instead of keepingup to his promise of « minimum government, maximum governance », the Modi government has done the opposite. It has created a situation where there is « Maximum government and minimum governance. » The credit for pushing India’s healthy, robust economy into a deep recession goes to Mr Modi, who, with his unwise policies and authoritarianism, has single-handedly brought the Indian economy on to its knees. Unfortunately, it will take a long, long time for the economy to recover from this deep recession. @ P.Ananth Kumar, Madras Courier - 2 December 2019 [The Madras Courier is the first newspaper to be established in the Madras Presidency, British India.]

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